01/04/2025 by Ruud Schmeink
The risk mix for Europe and strategic responses following US tariffs
Exploring strategic responses following US tariffs on European goods for manufacturing executives, drawing insight from historic American tariff policies.
Executive summary
As of April 3, 2025, the Trump administration has abruptly implemented tariffs targeting a broad range of European intermediate goods, including specialty chemicals and food ingredients. This escalation risks triggering a global trade war and demands immediate strategic responses from European manufacturing leaders.
Drawing insights from historic American tariff policies under Alexander Hamilton, Henry Clay and Herbert Hoover, our report frames a set of forward-looking business scenarios to guide portfolio selection, pricing strategies, asset relocation, and risk mitigation. These historical analogies offer predictive insight and practical options for firms navigating today’s fractured global order.
The real danger of the US tariffs for the European industry
While the EU headlines scream about US tariff retaliation, the real danger for European industry may likely come from an unprecedented surge in imports from the Far East as an indirect effect of the new US Tariffs. While Europe is already weakened by excessive energy cost and facing decline in its domestic market, Europe better reorient itself to counter the competitively priced goods from Asia, instead of focusing on US retaliatory measures.
It’s interesting to read the deeply rooted US history with tariff wars, from Hamilton, McKinley, Hoover to now Trump. An analysis with scholar GPT revealed the historical parallels and expected EU export impact. This may urge industry leaders to address their global supply positions at earliest convenience, and EU policy makers to act paradoxically before it undermines Europe's competitive edge even deeper.
Read our analysis on strategic responses following US tariffs